While taking the chalk will sometimes be the correct play in NFL gambling and something nearly all bettors will do with regularity the fact remains that the chalk, more often than not, is lacking value and in fact often carries a “tax” of an extra point, two, three, or more because the mainstream gambling public masses always end up gravitating to the favorite when laying out their pro football bets.
Let’s first consider the fact that NFL gamblers, for the most part, are incredibly ignorant. There are certainly a hard core group of experts at NFL gambling but the overwhelming majority of NFL gamblers are “weekend warriors” who watch the babbling buffoons on ESPN, or listen to sports talk radio, and visit fan blogs. In other words they get their “information,” (if you want to call it that), from the same overhyped cliché spewing sources that everyone else get theirs from. And they make their wagers accordingly.
Since we are dealing with the basic nature of the casual mass produced gambler it is natural for such folks to want to simply take what they perceive to be the “better team” which is their first mistake as many times that “better team” should NOT be the favorite, but is installed as the chalk because the oddsmakers know how the public will react and bet based on how they perceive the teams involved.
IN pro football gambling, the chalk has often been the wrong way to go, particularly in the bigger more high profile matchups between teams that are of equal caliber, where the better known or home team often is transformed into an overlay, (laying more points than justified).
NFL gambling is often a game of finding value. In the long run a bettor is not going to find value betting on the chalk as, again, the sportsbooks add a surcharge/tax on the favorites as they are simply meeting consumer demand for the favorite. NFL betting lines are no different than selling cars, televisions, or cologne, the oddsmakers and sportsbooks will simply charge what the market will bear and since the books know that the public naturally gravitates towards the chalk, they will jack up their lines to meet that consumer demand, making the dog an ADDED VALUE that actually decreases the house edge for the sharp gambler. Long term, taking the dog is the way to create extra value and a gambler’s profits.
Finding Value in NFL Games
More often than not, the bookmakers will have a lot more information than you can ever gather on your own. Therefore, the goal isn’t necessarily to beat the sportsbooks by finding faulty betting lines. Rather, you should wait to see the line movement caused by other gamblers placing their wagers.
Here’s what I do personally. Before the opening lines are created for the upcoming week’s games, go through and assign each of these games a line on your own. If you have experience watching and following most NFL teams, this shouldn’t be too difficult. You should take into account the offensive and defensive prowess of each team and how they match up in certain statistical categories such as passing vs pass defense or running vs run defense.
Next, see what the opening lines are and compare them to your own. Any line that you are very close on should probably be avoided unless you like picking against coin flip situations.
Now, wait a couple of days with a few games in mind. I usually keep an eye on between 4 and 7 games. This will include 3 or 4 early games, a couple of late games, and maybe the Sunday Night or Monday Night games. I don’t bet on the Thursday Night games personally. Pay attention to the line movement. Is the line moving closer or further away from your prediction? You can also include any game that was initially close but has moved significantly from the initial odds.
If you see the majority of people betting on one side, the line will generally move to compensate and draw wagers towards the other side. When you see a chance where the majority of people are going against you, this is the time to bet on the other side. A rule of thumb that I use is not to bet with the crowd. Sometimes the crowd is right, but more often they push the line too far, especially when they heavily bet on the favorite.
It’s up to you to find these situations and take advantage of them. Some sportsbooks will move the line more than others, which is why it is important to have accounts at more than just one place. Will this guarantee that you will win? No. But neither will listening to any of the prognosticators or experts who infleunce a lot of these gamblers’ opinions. The goal is simply to win at about a 60% clip so that you are making money.
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