The NBA Finals are like the Super Bowl, the World Series or the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They are the culmination of a long season of betting action. Usually when these big events take place the average bettor wants to get involved. It doesn't matter whether or not the bettor likes the sport, what matters is that the games are on TV. When we look at basketball betting, particularly during the NBA Finals, we have to factor the public into the equation.
When we look at betting basketball during the NBA Finals the first place we start is with the series price. Unlike the regular season we have the opportunity to bet on which team we believe will win the series. In recent years that bet begins by looking at the Western Conference. San Antonio has been a dominant squad, and although Detroit and Miami have shown strength, we have to at least look first at the West. The price may be too high to consider, but we have to start there. If we can't find a decent bet on the West, then taking the dog regardless of the conference might not be a bad idea and here is why. If we take the dog in the series and we can steal one of the first two games we can hedge our bet and lock in a profit. We need to remember that the series price is adjusted throughout the playoffs and our goal will be to take the dog before the series and hopefully take the favorite later in the series at a reduced price.
When we talk about betting basketball during the NBA finals we also want to consider the very popular zig-zag theory. It is a betting system that has us taking the loser of the previous game. The theory was a great moneymaker through the 80's and early 90's but has regressed since. It is still worth looking at though, but not the automatic play it used to be. I think the theory works best though in the NBA Finals because teams just can't afford to lose two straight and have a chance.
We should also consider when betting basketball during the NBA Finals betting against the home team. Almost without fail the home team in the NBA Finals is overpriced. They are almost always getting points and are a worth a really strong look. Home court advantage is important, but in the NBA Finals every game is critical and the home court advantage is often overpriced into the betting line. The value is with the road team. We get added value on the road team in the NBA Finals and also get the opportunity to take them on the moneyline as well. If the road team is going to cover they very often will win the game straight up. That really is appealing.
As we bet basketball during the NBA finals we want to keep in mind the zig-zag, the series price, and taking the road team. Those three factors should give us a decent shot to make money.
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